Wednesday, March 18, 2009

India Healing From Recession

With the world's most developed economies reeling under the incubus of what is already being called the Great Recession, India at the beginning of the year took stock and issued a revised estimate for Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth in the 2008-2009 fiscal year. Its projection came out at a healthy 7.1 percent. But the last quarter yielded some drastic results.

Looking at the Pre-Globalization times, the Hindu Country was way behind the rest of Asia having a very small growth rate of about 3%.
But after liberalization Indian Economic Recovery was phenomenal. T
he country's tech-savvy information-technology pioneers, software engineers, and call-center operators have made the country an economic success story. India has managed to multiply its per capita income levels many times over since 1950, and has done so far faster in recent years than the United Kingdom or the United States did during and after their industrial revolutions.

India's financial system suffers from few of the creative and risky derivative instruments that caused such problems in the Western economies. A tradition of conservative banking regulation and the presence of a tough-minded governor of the Reserve Bank (India's central bank) ensured that the Indian banking system did not acquire the toxic debts flowing from sub-prime loans, credit-default swaps, and over-inflated housing prices that assailed banks in Western countries.

The negative effect of the United States' financial setbacks on Indian stock markets, therefore, have made little sense, since they bore no relation to the real value of Indian companies. Instead to say it was the Liquidity Crunch which was present from the side of Foreign Investors.

India had and will have a big pool of Foreign Money(Forex) so the M-o-M(Market-To-Market) ratio will always confront as a strong point to any economy having a good pool of Forex money.

Indian Private Sector was the most hit, but the system in India will bounce-back faster than expected due to reforms by RBI and Government. The recovery has started with major bail-outs being canceled and companies becoming strong again with projects from all round the world.

According to a report, Indian Economy can triple in the next 15 to 25 yrs making it a super-power likely to surpass USA.

1 comment:

Shaurya Srivastava said...

Surely India is healing from recession. Can you please elaborate on the reasons for such behaviour? Also, more on recovery process made by the Indians rather than the market?

Well written! Please write simpler than this. I am getting some points but not the gist of it.