Derivatives- Means To Mass Destruction!!!

In Capital Markets, there have been many ways to multiply your profit, in recent times the craving in this direction has increased heavily.

Derivatives have been in the industry for almost 3 centuries. The financial derivatives came into spotlight in post-1970 period due to growing instability in the financial markets.

Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called underlying. The underlying asset can be equity, index, foreign exchange (forex), commodity or any other asset.
Derivatives can be essentially used to diminish or tone down the risk of economic loss arising from the changes in the value of the underlying.

Because the value of a derivative is contingent on the value of the underlying, the notional value of derivatives is recorded off the balance sheet of an institution, although the market value of derivatives is recorded on the balance sheet.

Uses of Derivatives are in Hedging and Speculation and Arbitrage.

Hedging

Derivatives allow risk incurred in the value of the underlying asset to be transferred from one party to another. Such a mechanism is know as Hedging.
We can say a buyer and seller can sign a contract about a particular value of an asset in future(The value is speculated for future value on the basis of the market and demand forecasting in future).

Hedging also occurs when an individual or institution buys an asset (like a commodity, a bond that has coupon payments, a stock that pays dividends, and so on) and sells it using a futures contract.

Speculation and Arbitrage

Derivatives can be used to acquire risk, rather than to insure or hedge against risk.
Speculation means Implied Gambling(Gambling with some results favoring it). Individuals and Institutions enter into a derivative contract to speculate on the value of the underlying asset, betting that the party seeking insurance will be wrong about the future value of the underlying asset.

Individuals and institutions may also look for arbitrage opportunities, as when the current buying price of an asset falls below the price specified in a futures contract to sell the asset.
Arbitrage means Intermediate Market conditions.
An example can be-
There is always a difference in price of Shares in NSE and BSE. Some people may buy Shares in NSE and sell them in BSE if the value is more(earning profit excluding minor transaction charges).
Arbitrage is no loss work which has become a famous undertaking in recent times.

Criticism

Warren Buffet once said "Derivatives are a means of Mass Destruction", clearly the saying goes with the happening. The Tornado of Economic Recession which is DESTRUCTIVE and still going on has been the, u can say "EYE WITNESS", of the above saying.

Derivatives massively leverage the debt in an economy, making it ever more difficult for the underlying real economy to service its debt obligations and curtailing real economic activity, which can cause a recession or even depression.

The use of derivatives can result in large losses due to the use of leverage, or borrowing. Derivatives allow investors to earn large returns from small movements in the underlying asset's price. However, investors could lose large amounts if the price of the underlying moves against them significantly.

There have been instances of massive losses in derivative markets such as-
1. The need to recapitalize insurer American International Group(AIG) with $85 billion of debt provided by the US federal . An AIG subsidiary had lost more than $18 billion over the previous three quarters on Credit Default Swaps (CDS) it had written. It was reported that the recapitalization was necessary because further losses were foreseeable over the next few quarters.

2. The bankruptcy of Orange County, CA in 1994, the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. On December 6, 1994, Orange County declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy, from which it emerged in June 1995. The county lost about $1.6 billion through derivatives trading.(Courtesy: Economic Times) Orange County was neither bankrupt nor insolvent at the time; however, because of the strategy the county employed it was unable to generate the cash flows needed to maintain services. Orange County is a good example of what happens when derivatives are used incorrectly and positions liquidated in an unplanned manner; had they not liquidated they would not have lost any money as their positions rebounded. Potentially problematic use of interest-rate derivatives by US municipalities has continued in recent years..................

G7 and G20 countries

G7 Countries

The G7 was an informal gathering of heads of state and governments of the world's most advanced economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States).

In the early stages, members of the G7 were accompanied at meetings by their foreign and finance ministers. In 1998, the British Presidency decided to separate the ministerial meetings from the original summit in order to keep the original concept of a small, informal gathering. In the same year, Russia joined what then became the G8. Since 2005, the G8 has been holding dialogues with the major emerging economies of Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa.

G8 finance ministers meet once a year before the actual summit. However, finance ministers also meet in general three more times (early in the year, and at the margin of the spring and annual meetings of the international financial institutions), but in a G7 (instead of a G8) framework. . Since the introduction of the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the President of the Eurogroup also attend. (Courtesy:Wikipedia)

The G7/8 deals with such issues as: global economic outlook and macroeconomic management, international trade, energy, climate change, and relations with developing countries.

G20 Countries

The G20 (Group of 20) is a group representing 19 of the world's largest economies plus the European Union that are strategically important and influential in the world economy. The G20 was formed as a new forum for cooperation and consultation on matters pertaining to the International Financial System (IFS).

The membership of the G20 comprises the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7, 12 other key countries, and the European Union Presidency (if not a G7 member); the European Central Bank; the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund; the Chairman of the IMFC; the President of the World Bank; and the Chairman of the Development Committee.

The G20 is an informal forum that promotes open and constructive discussion between industrial and emerging-market countries on key issues related to global economic stability.

The members of the G20 are the finance ministers and central bank governors of 19 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member, represented by the rotating Council Presidency and the European Central Bank.

DESPERATE INTERCEPTION!!!

Desperate to avoid a depression like the one witnessed in 1929, the US Fed in coordination with other central banks today announced a cut in key rates to stimulate consumption and economic activity. This has been a suffix to the recent hapennings and recession type liabilities, not so true but imposed due to heavy speculation in global markets.

Who knows the markets have been slaughtered on the condition basis or due to heavy speculation and rumors of global stagnation.

Steps taken also include some Joint unprecidented(to be precise) actions and consultation such as to increase liquidity in market to reduce financial crisis.

This will have an impact on Inflation. But according to me, decline in energy and other commodity prices has reduced the upside risk of Inflation to a much greater extent.

Stats say that

The Fed has reduced the federal funds rate by 50 basis-points to 1.5 percent.

Chinese Central bank has cut interest rates for the second time in less than one month reducing it to 6.93 percent, to increase money availability in the market.

OTHER MAJOR FALLS ARE:-

The European Central Bank's main rate is now 3.75 per cent, Canada's benchmark rate fell to 2.5 per cent, Bank of England's rate dropped to 4.5 per cent and Sweden's rate declined to 4.25 per cent.

Now comes RBI's Interception....

Speculators have been discussing the slashing in interest rates as a negative impact as this is following the same trend the Fed did about 2 month ago to maintain or retain stability in Financial Markets.

The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) will fall to 8.5% from 11 October and the move would release about Rs20,000 crore into the financial system.

Observing the current liquidity situation in the context of global and domestic developments, it has been decided to reduce the CRR by 50 basis points to 8.5% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

Thus increasing the total market liquidity to Rs90,000 crore.

Recently the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit

Speaking in Finance Minister's Language the depression will have no effect on the nation's economic stability, but stats have as usual performed differently.

Short Selling BANNED!!!

On September 19th, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson issued a statement in which he said that the Federal government “must implement a program to remove these illiquid assets that are weighing down our financial institutions and threatening our economy”. He called it the ‘Troubled Asset Relief Program’. Many have taken to abbreviating to TARP and from there, it is a short leap of imagination to call it a TRAP.

But, even before the bill is passed and its ramifications known, stock markets around the globe heaved a sigh of relief and rallied hard towards the end of week. It is a delightful irony that most markets showed a flat profile from Friday, September 12th to Friday, September 19th at the end of an unprecedented week. It is not so much the news of the proposed U.S. government bailout that stock market investors welcomed. The squeeze on short-sellers that regulators around the world applied worked its magic.

Short-selling banned but SEC created the conditions

Bulls are taken by their horns but I do not know how bears are tamed. Try banning short selling. Well that is what authorities in the U.S. and the UK did on Thursday. UK banned all short-selling of financial stocks up to January 2009. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US banned all naked short-selling in all stocks. Hedge funds have to swear under oath their short positions. Canada, Germany, Ireland, Holland, Taiwan and some others have joined.

That is a shame!! There was no reason for many authorities to impose restrictions on short-selling. It is not only unprecedented but also largely unnecessary.

Forgotten in this persecution of short-sellers is a matter of tiny detail that in 2004, the SEC made two important changes to its rules on the amount of leverage that broker-dealers could take on.
One, it removed the discounts it applied on the assets that these institutions own, in calculating their net capital.
Two, it allowed five broker-dealers to increase their leverage from 12:1 to 40:1. Those five were Merrill, Lehman Bear Stearns, Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Four of them are not around any more. Goldman has reduced itself to a mere Retail Bank.

It is not clear what role the institutions themselves played in this rule change. It appears that the retribution for the egregious errors of the regulators and the regulated entities would be paid by the shortsellers who seek to throw a spotlight on such behaviour. Strange are the turns that American capitalism has taken in the last few years.

Banning short-selling is to akin to "blaming the mirror for the ugly image". But then, these days, one is a suspect capitalist if one does not cheerlead rising asset prices even if the means are not exactly fair.

Any recovery in global equities and the U.S. dollar would eventually turn out to be a comic interlude in an, otherwise, tragic drama except that the comic interlude could last long enough to make us all feel like we were watching a new play all over again.